Russo-Turkey Relations and the Middle East

Russo- flop Relations and the Middle EastAbstractThe relation which dud sh atomic number 18 with Russia in the recent decades has been an example of truly bonding nature. Over a prolonged friendly relation for to a greater extent than two decades, bomb calorimeters traffic with Russia exacerbated inaugural when it shot Russian bomber run over the Syrian border and secondly the unfortunate killing of Russian ambassador which happened in Ankara. These incidents surely fructify a question mark on the peaceful relations of Turkey with Russia. Whether what the reality be, Turkey is accused for stabbing Russia in the back. These sore tending acts initially resulted in various sanctions posed by Russia against Turkey. In this alarming situation where crises have overtaken most of Europe, Middle Eastern region and Russia, this rivalry may direction galore(postnominal) states in the coming orb order.PrefaceThe crisis in the Middle Eastern region has brought in its wake a perceptible shift in Russo-Turkey relations in the contemporary arna. At first, the downing of a Russian Su-24 bomber jet by Turkish F-16 fighter over the Syrian-Turkish border bewailed the chairperson of Russia. The subsequent reaction of that incident provided a great index of the deterioration betwixt some(prenominal). Secondly, the assassination of the Russian ambassador Andrey Karlov in Turkey put a stamp on Turkeys goodwill in the sights of Russia. Russia was once considered a bitter enemy of Turks. In the contemporary arena, several ingredients have unfermented the erstwhile tensions as witnessed in the Tsarist and Ottoman eras. With the passage of time, the interaction between them has been fluctuating in keeping with the geographic and leadership transformation. By far, Syrian crisis is the latest point of contradiction between them, representing diverging interests. This is becoming a test case for the two for demonstrating their lost-power in the wake of contemporary transformat ions in the world order from unipolar to multipolar.The policies of both the states towards Syria runcounter to each early(a). Russia has shared a strong economic partnership withSyria, fact being that it (Syria) has remained a major(ip) beneficiary of Russianweaponry while Turkish Prime Minister, in 2012 called on Bashar al Assad tostep down as the President of Syria.No doubt, thither are convergences and divergences between Russia and Turkey to project their policies with each other as tumefy as other stakeholders of the region. This authorship is intended to analyse the Russo-Turkey relations in the backdrop of their interests in the Middle East, following the significance, convergences and divergences of their relations which have given rise to their contemporary role in the arena. After the discussion on the matter, this paper has extracted the role of Pakistan and has suggested bureau forward for Pakistans foreign policy concerning the subject matter.Why Middle East matter s the most to Russia and Turkey?The critical interests of Russia and Turkeyboth lies in the Middle East. besides they do non tend to be the same. Underthe umbrella of NATO, Turkey is exercising its policies as an independent statein the Middle Eastern crisis. Syria, Iraq and Iran being border stitched toTurkey are perceived to be under strong observations of Turkish policy makers.While Russia, non a NATO member has a different framework for the region,particularly its need for the Mediterranean sea, weaponry market and trading ofoil and gas is apparent. Mediterranean Sea links Russia with EasternMediterranean Sea, the Middle East and North Africa. So all situation ofconflict, war or unease in these regions has impact on Russias semipoliticalposition.There are number of factors that are driving the Turkish policy in which Saudi Arab is a part. Turkey has made it scant(p) that it wants the overthrow of Assad. This is the first time in its history that Turkey adopts a regime-cha nge strategy. When the United States decided to counter ISIS with the help of possible regional alliance, Turkey refused to demoralize actively involved unless the coalition were to target both Assad and ISIS at the same time. It is acquit that Ankara favours a war to the end of weakening all separate Assad, ISIS, the Kurds and Iran. Yet it ever preferred to rely on proxies and calls on NATO and the international community to intervene in Syria. It was because of this very tactic that Ankara allowed the Peshmerga (Iraqi Kurdish forces) to write in code the Syrian town of Kobane through Turkey to help the Syrian Kurds in the battle against ISIS and this is again the reason why it decided to support the jihadists in Syria.While, Russia is seen more as to helping its friend Assad in the play as recently it condemned the United States air strike on Syrias chemical launch pads. Syria is the scarcely country in the region which has Russias base(s). Continuing its efforts to play a ro le and get hold of the oil, gas and other economic factors, Russias perspective on Middle East policy is evident and strong in its intentions.Significance of Russia-Turkey relationsUnder theleadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and Turkey signed mutual agreementsand MoUs for increase both countries relations in terms of trade andcooperation.Turkey has remained one of Russias main trading partners.Both share huge amount of business in the sectors of energy, tourism and trade.The statistics show a viable flow of synergy between both. There is a proposedconstruction of a gas pipeline as well as the Akkuyu power plant, which may betouched after downing of a Russian jet by Turkey as a challenge incident.According to a Turkish academic, any damage to the infrastructure deals couldbe significant, because Turkey imports 55 part of its natural gas fromRussia and 30 percent of its oil.Turkey has close strategic ties with Russia interms of energy relationship with Russia, so it may be t hat the Turkish Streamproject as well as the nuclear energy project which is going to beconstructed by the Russians could be affected, Professor GurkanKumbaroglu from Bogazici Universitys department of engineering, told CNBC.So it is apparent if any sort of clash of ideas follow in Russo-Turkey relations, Russia has its hands on the switch to constrain Turkey politically without involving any armed conflict.Similarly, Russias tourism departmententertains much of Turkeys tourism industry as 3.6 million Russians visitedTurkey in the first nine months of 2013, according to the latest statistics ofRussias Federal Tourism Agency. This definitely adds a plow to Turkish economyand proved Russia has the power to restrict its citizens to travel Turkey inthe emergence of any dispute between the two countries. On the other hand, trade is the most primarysector which both countries has shared since few decades with tremendousoutcomes. Turkish vegetable exports account for some 20 percent of vegetable exportsto Russia. In 2014, according to Turkish foreign trade statistics, exports toRussia were worth $5.9 billion while imports from Russia were worth $25.2billion.This scenario is more prone to absolute gainsrather than relational gains because non only Turkey relies on Russian oil, gasand energy but Russias dependency on Turkish geostrategic location is aperfect example to say Turkey is also at gains.Convergences of Russia-Turkey relationsContemporary Russia did not take Turkey as an independent state and always restrained to be in connection with it until 2003 when surprisingly The Justice and Development Party of Turkey refused to allow American forces to use Turkish territory to take Iraq. This proved to be a game changer for Russias perception towards Turkey. The relations furthered in a positive way leaving the footprints of Cold state of war era outside the door when Turkey, as a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, was considered a frontline sta te in the divide between the communist bloc and the western bloc. Surprisingly, given the unrest in the North Caucasus and the Balkans on which show up the policies of Ankara and Moscow clashed, these relations changed. The tangible convergences between the duos can be elaborated as underTurkeys need of oil and gas is one of themajor convergence in the Russo-Turkey relations. The economic interests of bothcountries butt against but there are points of divergence in various strategic plans toextend oil and gas pipelines between countries of the Central Asia, and theMiddle East on the one hand and the European market on the other. So, they need to act rationally towards eachother to organize their interests.Russias dependency on Turkey is also apparentbecause Turkey might remain Russias necessary gateway to the Mediterranean,just as the Ottoman Empire was in the past.Nonetheless, there has been efforts to consign relations between the two countries which, in the form ofTurkish-Rus sian Cooperation Council in April and May 2010 got established. Sincethen the two leaders of the country have met annually. It has put a lot ofimpact on the international image of bilateral relations of Russia and Turkey becauseleaders from both sides warmly welcomed each other since then.Divergences, clashes and disputesThere have been titanic number of conflicts eversince the Tsarist Russia and Ottoman Empire since 1560s. The Russian side wonmore battles than Turkey which cl earliest indicates the significance of geographicdisposition of Russia. However, Crimean war led Russia lose due to possiblestronger alliance of Ottomans with British, French and Italian forces.While in the contemporary world, Turkeysneighbourhood has been in a turmoil, mainly Middle Eastern countries, which hasdirectly influenced Turkeys dealings with Europe and Russia.Today, the changed relationship between Turkeyand Russia has been affected by strategic considerations and politicalinterests relating to th e current reality in the Middle East. Especially thecrisis in Syria has moved both Turkey and Russia oppositely in terms ofnational interests. The two countries are not on the same pitch regarding thecrisis. Turkey has clearly taken steps to remove the regime of Assad whereas Russiaregards Assads ongoing leadership as a necessary condition to cope with theturmoil in the collapsed state. Preservation of its own strategic interests inthe Middle East, Russia is sensitive in providing support to Assad.The conflict of interests between Turkey andSyria includes border issues, questions pertaining to water and riparianrights, religious outlook, political-military orientation, drug-trafficking,smuggling, terrorism (Kurdish insurgency), and espionage etc.AnalysisSyrian crisis and all the history of Russo-Turkey relations aside, today, it is thought that Turkey has created a trust deficit in relation to its bilateral relations with Russia. On the other hand Russia is also thought to have take n Turkish early warnings life-threatening. However, there was not a serious threat to Turkey from Russia. Perhaps, Turkey could have considered many points of conflict before downing a Russian jet which was merely on its airspace (according to Russian narrative of the incident) at Turkey-Syria border. Russia in no time retaliated and adopted a political approach launching serious sanctions against Turkey.The trauma was not much concerning the policies of Turkey or Russia towards Syrian crisis but shooting down a Russian jet paved a way of thinking for the Russians to analyse Turkeys intentions and goals for the coming days. Subsequently Russia accused Turkey of being in business with the Islamic State of Syria. Similar reactions are observed from Turkish side as well. The war of words between the leaders of both countries have definitely evoked state of unease and unrest to their bilateral relations. The conflict however is not seen as beneficial for any side at all. Russia, despit e of its potential projects in Turkey, has unilaterally signed sanctions against it. However there are no signs of waging a war by any of them against each other.In recent decades, Russia and Turkey haveshared friendly and conjunctive relations sharing economic, trade, military andprojects related to energy sector. Both have respected each others view in theinternational decision-making process.The issue is not only limited to the interestsof both the countries, but then again there are risk factors which are givingshape to their policies. Turkey is not land locked, but still its a jigsawwhich connects whole Asia with the Europe. This puts a lot of responsibilityfor any leader of the Turkey to stand bearing to head against any turmoil whichmay disrupt countrys repute in the international arena. While Russia, despitebeing connected with many states, has to depend on the market of Middle East,European countries and specifically Turkey to constitute its trade, military,economic and f oreign policy for survival as a state.It is clear that international relations areuncertain and unpredictable, both are crucially unparalleled to each other andthe lack of trust between them is now a bone of contention. However, with thepassage of time, relations may grip instead of losing its charm because Russiamay digest what happened, or Turkey, which is not apparent at all, might rationalise for its act of downing a Russian jet. Because, in an emerging worldorder into multi polarity, the interests of others may urge Russia and Turkeyto rethink of their relations in a positive manner.Foreign policy guidelines for Pakistan in case of Russia-Turkey conflictThe conflict of ideas between Russian and Turkish relations hasnt directly influenced Pakistan to take any action of concern. However Pakistan does share points of convergences with both in terms of trade, educational exchange programs and tourist activities. In a nutshell, Pakistan and Turkey define each other as sister countri es, and the friendly relations of both as a Muslim state is the apex of their strong bonds. On the other hand, while not overriding its relations with India, Russia has shown great interest to re-establish its bilateral relations with Pakistan. This can succeed the idea for Pakistan to maintain a balanced foreign policy towards Turkey and Russia in this matter. Yet again the ill-timed row between Russia and Turkey has subjugating power to keep Pakistan a neutral observer.At this point in time, Pakistan as a member ofglobal community, having its national interests in Turkey, Russia and otherMiddle Eastern countries, has a shared responsibility to play positive role forthe approach of relations between them. In a limited context, Pakistan mayadopt a policy of deescalating the tensions between both and suggest measuresof cooperation and coordination to tackle the situation. Not to forget, Yemencrisis affected thousands of Pakistani citizens and resulted in their departurefrom Yemen. T his puts Pakistan in a situation to tactfully regulate itsobligation to work for the betterment of its own citizens while maintainingsustainable relations with other countries. 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